Northeast
Listen to Northeast Regional Pre-release Briefing
Key passages from report released April 16 (North America Chapter)
Key passages from report released April 6 (Impacts)
Key passages from report released February 2 (Science)
Regional Resources
North America Chapter of the IPCC's WGII Technical Report:
"Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability"
Issued April 16
On April 16, 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the North America chapter of the Working Group II technical report in Washington, D.C. This new chapter details the North American findings summarized in the global Summary for Policymakers released on April 6.
Key Passages:
Future Impacts and Vulnerabilities
Water quality
"A shorter ice-cover period in shallow northern lakes could reduce winter fish kills caused by low oxygen."
Coastal regions
"Higher sea levels in combination with storm surges will cause widespread problems for transportation along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts."
"More winters with reduced sea ice in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, resulting in more open water during the winter storm season, will lead to an increase in the average number of storm wave events per year, further accelerating coastal erosion [medium confidence]."
Human health
"For the 2050s, daily average ozone levels are projected to increase by 3.7 ppb across the eastern U.S., with the cities most polluted today experiencing the greatest increase in ozone pollution. One-hour maximum ozone follows a similar pattern, with the number of summer days exceeding the 8-hour regulatory U.S. standard projected to increase by 68%. Assuming constant population and dose-response characteristics, ozone related deaths from climate change increase by approximately 4.5% from the 1990s to the 2050s."
Human Settlements
"Since the TAR, a few studies have projected increasing vulnerability of infrastructure to extreme weather related to climate warming unless adaptation is effective [high confidence]. Examples include the New York Metropolitan Region, the mid-Atlantic Region, and the urban transportation network of the Boston metropolitan area. For Boston, projections of a gradual increase (0.31%/yr) in the probability of the 100-year storm surge, as well as sea-level rise of 3 mm/yr, leads to urban riverine and coastal flooding, but the projected economic damages do not justify the cost of adapting the transportation infrastructure to climate change."
Energy demand
"Ruth and Amato (2002) projected a 6.6% decline in annual heating fuel consumption for Massachusetts in 2020 (8.7% decrease in heating degree-days) and a 1.9% increase in summer electricity consumption (12% increase in annual cooling degree-days)."
"Summer peak {electricity} demand is likely to increase 7-17% in the New York metropolitan region."
North American cities
"Since most large North American cities are on tidewater, rivers or both, effects of climate change will likely include sea level rise (SLR) and/or riverine flooding. The largest impacts are expected when SLR, heavy river flows, high tides, and storms coincide. In New York, flooding from the combination of SLR and storm surge could be several meters deep. By the 2090s under a strong warming scenario, today's 100-year flood level could have a return period of 3-4 years, and today's 500-year flood could be a one in 50 year event, putting much of the region's infrastructure at increased risk."
"In New York, supplying summer electricity demand could increase air pollutant levels (e.g., ozone) and health impacts could be further exacerbated by climate change interacting with urban heat island effects. Unreliable electric power, as in minority neighbourhoods during the New York heat wave of 1999, can amplify concerns about health and environmental justice."
"The New York area will likely experience greater water supply variability. The New York's system likely can accommodate this, but the region's smaller systems may be vulnerable, leading to a need for enhanced regional water distribution protocols."
Current Sensitivities/Vulnerabilities
"Although drought has been more frequent and intense in the western part of the U.S. and Canada, the east is not immune from droughts and attendant reductions in water supply, changes in water quality and ecosystem function, and challenges in allocation."
Coastal regions
"Relative sea level is rising in many areas, yet coastal residents are often unaware of the trends and their impacts on coastal retreat and flooding."
"Many coastal areas in North America are potentially exposed to storm-surge flooding."
Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries
"Lake charr in an Ontario lake suffered recruitment failure due to El Niņo-linked warm temperatures. Lake Ontario year-class productivity is strongly linked to temperature, with a shift in the 1990s toward warm-water species."
Human health
"Exposure to both extreme hot and cold weather is associated with increased morbidity and mortality, compared to an intermediate 'comfortable' temperature range. Across 12 U.S. cities, hot temperatures were associated with increased hospital admissions for cardiovascular disease. Admissions to emergency rooms were directly related to extreme heat in Toronto. Heat response plans and heat early warning systems (EWS) can save lives."
Infrastructure and extreme events
"The devastating effects of hurricanes Ivan in 2004 and Katrina, Rita, and Wilma in 2005 . illustrate the vulnerability of North American infrastructure and urban systems that were either not designed or maintained to adequate safety margins."
"North America very likely will continue to suffer serious losses of life and property simply due to growth in property values and numbers of people at risk [very high confidence]. Of the US $19 trillion value of all insured residential and commercial property in the U.S. states exposed to North Atlantic hurricanes, US $7.2 trillion (41%) is located in coastal counties. This economic value includes 79% of the property in Florida, 63% of the property in New York, and 61% of the property in Connecticut."
Energy, industry and transportation
"North American industry, energy supply, and transportation networks are sensitive to weather extremes that exceed their safety margins. Costs of these impacts can be high. For example, power outages in the U.S. cost the economy US $30-130 billion annually."
"Although it was not triggered specifically by the concurrent hot weather, the 2003 summer outage in north-eastern U.S. and south-eastern Canada illustrates costs to North American society that result from large-scale power interruptions during periods of high demand. Over 50 million people were without power, resulting in US $180 million in insured losses and up to US $10 billion in total losses. Business interruptions were particularly significant, with costs incurred by the top quartile of recently surveyed companies over US $250,000/hr."
Adaptation:
"Philadelphia, Toronto and a few other communities have introduced warning programs to manage the health threat of heat waves."
[top of page]The IPCC's "Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability"
Issued April 6
Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released this part of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report on April 6.
"Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability" summarizes current knowledge about impacts of climate change that have already been observed. It also projects future impacts, based on scenarios in which no explicit actions are taken to address global warming and activity continues on a business-as-usual path. That is, the projections assume that climate change impacts are not mitigated by actions such as cuts in greenhouse gases nor by policies that would enhance adaptability to global warming.
The report includes these statements about continent-scale and global-scale changes that relate to issues of concern in the Northeastern United States.
Key passages:
"Drought-affected areas will likely increase in extent. Heavy precipitation events, which are very likely to increase in frequency, will augment flood risk [high confidence]."
"In the course of the century, water supplies stored in glaciers and snow cover are projected to decline, reducing water availability in regions supplied by meltwater from major mountain ranges, where more than one-sixth of the world population currently lives [high confidence]."
"Coasts are projected to be exposed to increasing risks, including coastal erosion, due to climate change and sea-level rise and the effect will be exacerbated by increasing human-induced pressures on coastal areas [very high confidence]."
"The most vulnerable industries, settlements and societies are generally those in coastal and river flood plains, those whose economies are closely linked with climate-sensitive resources, and those in areas prone to extreme weather events, especially where rapid urbanisation is occurring [high confidence]."
[Following passages from the report's North America section:]
"Moderate climate change in the early decades of the century is projected to increase aggregate yields of rain-fed agriculture by 5-20%, but with important variability among regions. Major challenges are projected for crops that are near the warm end of their suitable range or depend on highly utilised water resources [high confidence]."
"Disturbances from pests, diseases, and fire are projected to have increasing impacts on forests, with an extended period of high fire risk and large increases in area burned [very high confidence]."
"Cities that currently experience heat waves are expected to be further challenged by an increased number, intensity and duration of heat waves during the course of the century, with potential for adverse health impacts. The growing number of the elderly population is most at risk [very high confidence]."
"Coastal communities and habitats will be increasingly stressed by climate change impacts interacting with development and pollution. Population growth and the rising value of infrastructure in coastal areas increase vulnerability to climate variability and future climate change, with losses projected to increase if the intensity of tropical storms increases. Current adaptation is uneven and readiness for increased exposure is low [very high confidence]."
[top of page]The IPCC's "Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis"
Issued Feb. 2
The IPCC's new report includes these statements about global-scale changes that relate to issues of concern in the Northeast, such as weather extremes and sea level rise. The summary issued Feb. 2 does not have region-level projections for the U.S.
Key passages:
Extreme weather
"The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas, consistent with warming and observed increases of atmospheric water vapour."
"Widespread changes in extreme temperatures have been observed over the last 50 years. Cold days, cold nights and frost have become less frequent, while hot days, hot nights, and heat waves have become more frequent."
"It is very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent." (In IPCC terminology, "very likely" means a probability greater than 90 percent and "likely" greater than 66 percent.)
"Snow cover is projected to contract. Widespread increases in thaw depth are projected over most permafrost regions."
For more IPCC excerpts see Extreme Weather.
Hurricanes and sea level rise
"Both past and future anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions will continue to contribute to warming and sea level rise for more than a millennium, due to the timescales required for removal of this gas from the atmosphere."
"Based on a range of models, it is likely that future tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases of tropical SSTs (sea surface temperatures). There is less confidence in projections of a global decrease in numbers of tropical cyclones. The apparent increase in the proportion of very intense storms since 1970 in some regions is much larger than simulated by current models for that period."
"Extra-tropical storm tracks are projected to move poleward, with consequent changes in wind, precipitation, and temperature patterns, continuing the broad pattern of observed trends over the last half-century."
For more IPCC excerpts see Hurricanes and Sea Level Rise.
[top of page]Regional resources
New England Integrated Sciences and Assessment (http://inhale.unh.edu/), coordinated by the University of New Hampshire, is a "multi-institutional and multi-disciplinary integrated assessment focusing on the relationship between climate, air quality, and human health in New England." It maintains an interactive web page, "Indicators of Climate Change in the Northeast." (http://inhale.unh.edu/Climate/climateindex.html)
Climate and Farming is a website produced by Cornell University, the University of Vermont and other partners about climate change and Northeast agriculture.
http://www.climateandfarming.org/index.php
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency produced individual information sheets in 1998, presenting the agency's then-current assessment of past and possible future impacts of climate change in each state. PDF files can be downloaded here:
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/
ImpactsStateImpacts.html?OpenDocument
The U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change was published by the federal government in 2001. It included information for 19 regions and nine mega-regions of the country. Those regional reports can be downloaded here:
http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/nacc/background/regions.htm
"Heat - The Number One Non-Severe Weather Related Killer in the United States" provides detailed background information on heat waves. The article was published in 2006 in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's NOAA Magazine.
http://www.magazine.noaa.gov/stories/mag208.htm
Examples of region-related research
Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast
2006
Download report here:
http://www.climatechoices.org/assets/documents/climatechoices/
NECIA_climate_report_final.pdf
The Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (http://www.northeastclimateimpacts.org/), a scientific project "to develop and communicate a new assessment of climate change and associated impacts on key climate-sensitive sectors in the northeastern United States," prepared this report.
Climate's Long-Term Impacts on Metro Boston
Tufts University, et al., 2004
Study available here:
http://www.tufts.edu/tie/climb/
A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise
Rahmstorf, S. (2006)
Abstract available here: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/315/5810/368
BBC News: "Current sea level rise projections could be under-estimating the impact of human-induced climate change on the world's oceans, scientists suggest. By plotting global mean surface temperatures against sea level rise, the team found that levels could rise by 59% more than current forecasts."
(http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6179409.stm)
State Resources
CONNECTICUT [top of page]
James Gustave Speth
Dean, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies
Yale University
203-432-5109
gus.speth@yale.edu
MASSACHUSETTES [top of page]
Rob Evans, PhD
Associate Scientist
Geology and Geophysics Department
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
508-289-2673
revans@whoi.edu
James J. McCarthy, Ph.D.
Professor of Biological Oceanography
Head Tutor in Environmental Science and Public Policy
Harvard University
2001 IPCC WG II Co-chair
617-495-2330
jmccarthy@oeb.harvard.edu
Marine systems and polar regions; IPCC report finalization/plenary/approval process
Raymond W. Schmitt, Ph.D.
Senior Scientist
Department of Physical Oceanography
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Woods Hole, MA 02543
Ph.: 508 289 2426
email: rschmitt@whoi.edu
NEW HAMPSHIRE [top of page]
Scott Ollinger, Ph.D.
Assistant Professor
Department of Natural Resources
University of New Hampshire
603-862-2926
scott.ollinger@unh.edu
Warming trend blamed for syrup season change
Associated Press, March 22, 2004
http://www.boston.com/news/local/new_hampshire/articles/2004/03/22/
warming_trend_blamed_for_syrup_season_change/
NEW JERSEY [top of page]
Lifeng Luo, Ph.D.
Princeton University
609-258-1551
lluo@princeton.edu
Climate change, impact on water/snow cover/drought
Justin Sheffield
Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Princeton University
609-258-1551
justin@princeton.edu
Terrestrial hydrology, water resources and hydroclimatology
Eric F. Wood
Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Princeton University
609-258-4675
efwood@princeton.edu
Terrestrial hydrology, water resources and hydroclimatology
"N.J. coastline at risk from warming"
Herald News, March 20, 2007
http://www.northjersey.com/page.php?qstr=eXJpcnk3ZjczN2Y3dnFlZUVFeXkzJmZnYm
VsN2Y3dnFlZUVFeXk3MDk2ODAxJnlyaXJ5N2Y3MTdmN3ZxZWVFRXl5Mg==
NEW YORK [top of page]
Arthur DeGaetano, Ph.D.
Associate Professor, Earth and Atmospheric Science
Director, NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center
Cornell University
607-255-0385
atd2@cornell.edu
David W. Wolfe, Ph.D.
Professor of Plant Ecology
Dept. of Horticulture
Cornell University
Tel: 607-255-7888
Fax: 607-255-0599
Email: dww5@cornell.edu
http://www.hort.cornell.edu/wolfe
PENNSYLVANIA [top of page]
Amy Glasmeier
Professor of Economic Geography
Professor of Geography and Regional Planning
Pennsylvania State University
814-865-7323
akg1@ems.psu.edu
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